Possible scenario
Movement Broadens Nationally
30% Chance
The teenager’s injury becomes a unifying symbol for students, teachers, civil-liberties groups, and parts of the labor movement. The grenade suspension is seen as too narrow, and demands expand to school funding, police accountability, and resignations inside the Interior Ministry.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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