Possible scenario
Legal Accountability Focus
20% Chance
The crisis shifts from street mobilization toward institutions: IGPN, the Défenseur des droits, the Assemblée nationale, and administrative courts. This gives unions a concrete accountability channel while reducing the likelihood of uncontrolled escalation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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