Possible scenario
Supply Shock Worsens
30% Chance
Russia’s diesel export restrictions and U.S. refinery disruptions could overlap for longer than traders expect. In that case, distillate cracks widen further, inflation expectations rise, and fuel-sensitive equities underperform.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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