Possible scenario
Negotiated Eviction Compromise
45% Chance
Pedro Sanchez's government most likely tries to preserve the eviction moratorium while offering Junts technical concessions on Catalonia's housing administration and landlord compensation. This would let Junts claim a policy win without toppling the parliamentary arrangement that has supported the PSOE-led government since 2023.
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.5%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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