Possible scenario
Commercial Terms Slip
26% Chance
Even with Taiwan's investment confirmed, the project's scale leaves room for delays around tolling fees, construction costs, shipping economics and equity allocations. This scenario assumes the investment remains intact, but binding commercial close takes longer than the political announcements imply.
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.8%
- Industrials -0.4%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.2%
- Utilities -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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