Possible scenario
Negotiated Fee Regime
45% Chance
Iran converts its expanded Hormuz cable-routing claims into a bargaining position rather than immediate enforcement. Google, Meta and regional landing-station operators negotiate a licensing or transit-fee mechanism to avoid disruption to planned Gulf data links.
Secondary impacts
- Telecommunications -0.4%
- Technology -0.3%
Tickers
- META-0.5%
- GOOGL-0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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