Possible scenario
Inflation Hedge Returns
15% Chance
A less likely but plausible outcome is that inflation concern becomes supportive rather than negative for gold. If energy prices or inflation breakevens rise faster than nominal yields, investors may rebuild bullion exposure as a hedge.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.