Possible scenario
Hawkish Rates Extend
45% Chance
The most likely path is a continuation of the existing pattern: sticky inflation expectations lift Treasury yields and the dollar, keeping real-rate pressure on gold. Traders add to bets that the Federal Reserve will keep policy restrictive after the recent move above 5.3% in long yields.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -0.8%
- Technology -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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