Possible scenario
Fiscal Compromise Holds
40% Chance
President Nicușor Dan and the main pro-European parties broker a workable fiscal agreement after the government collapse. The package is politically fragile but credible enough to prevent an immediate sovereign downgrade and keep EU budget talks on track.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
- Utilities +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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