Possible scenario
Freight Squeeze Persists
45% Chance
War-risk insurance and long-haul tanker scarcity keep delivered crude costs unusually high for Asian refiners. Refiners in South Korea, India, Japan and Singapore reduce crude runs or delay spot purchases until margins recover.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.4%
- Industrials -0.4%
Tickers
- FRO+2.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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