Possible scenario
Kremlin Rejects Offer
30% Chance
Russia is likely to preserve sovereignty over the investigation and reject visible US involvement. The Kremlin can frame the offer as unnecessary while maintaining that there was no plague exposure or containment failure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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