Possible scenario
Rhetoric Stays Contained
42% Chance
Iran follows through with public threats, naming Gulf participants and warning against security cooperation with Israel, but avoids kinetic action. This is the most likely path because Tehran can signal resolve without risking a wider confrontation with the UAE, Saudi Arabia, the United States, and Israel.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.3%
- Energy -0.1%
- Consumer Services
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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