Possible scenario
Gray-Zone Retaliation
30% Chance
Iran or aligned groups retaliate below the threshold of open war through cyber operations, proxy launches, or maritime pressure. This path fits Tehran's recent pattern of using deniable tools while still trying to punish Gulf states for security coordination with Israel.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.4%
- Energy +1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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