Possible scenario
Regulatory Review Intensifies
18% Chance
Although the SEC dropped its Ripple appeal in 2025, public treasury vehicles holding large crypto positions can still face disclosure, custody, accounting, and market-manipulation questions. This scenario does not assume a reversal of XRP’s legal status, only closer scrutiny of the listed vehicle.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.3%
Tickers
- XRPN-8.1%
- COIN-0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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