Possible scenario
Legal Referral Escalates
27% Chance
A more severe path is that White House counsel concludes the evidence suggests possible fraud, conversion of funds, or false donor representations. Trump distances himself from Grenell and allows the Justice Department or inspectors general to examine the missing money.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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