Possible scenario
Orderly Futures Launch
45% Chance
CME launches Bitcoin Cash and Uniswap futures on Oct. 19 with adequate market-maker support, clean clearing operations, and no immediate regulatory disruption. The contracts broaden regulated crypto derivatives access, but the market impact remains concentrated in crypto trading venues and CME-related sentiment.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
- Technology +0.1%
Tickers
- CME+1.0%
- +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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