Possible scenario
US Export Curbs
20% Chance
The Trump administration follows through with restrictions after failing to secure the requested EU release. The direct hit falls on US refiners and exporters, while broader markets price higher policy risk and tighter non-US diesel supply.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -3.4%
- Industrials -1.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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