Direct Military Clash
−2.1%
A confirmed new strike causing casualties or severe environmental damage prompts direct military action or an armed exchange near the strait. This is less likely than containment, but repeated tanker hits increase the risk of miscalculation and a sharp cross-asset stress response.
What it moves
- Energy+3.8%
- Consumer Services−3.7%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.