Possible scenario
Broader Espionage Probe
25% Chance
Investigators may examine whether the alleged bugging overlaps with OpenAI’s earlier firing of researchers over suspected data leaks. This scenario would raise reputational and operational risk for OpenAI, but the immediate market impact would still be limited unless a named public company or state actor is implicated.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.1%
Tickers
- MSFT-0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.