Possible scenario
Mainstream GOP Prevails
40% Chance
Trump's endorsement boosts Bernadette Wilson with core MAGA voters but does not overturn Alaska's recent pattern of rejecting Trump-backed candidates under ranked-choice voting. A more conventional Republican such as Nancy Dahlstrom consolidates business, oil-sector, and Murkowski-aligned support.
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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