Possible scenario
Democrat Exploits Split
20% Chance
A Democrat such as Les Gara benefits if Wilson and an establishment Republican divide conservative voters and damage each other through the campaign. Ranked-choice voting allows a center-left candidate to win if enough independents and moderates rank the Democrat above a Trump-aligned Republican.
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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