Possible scenario
Saudi Military Retaliation
28% Chance
Riyadh responds with airstrikes on Houthi launch infrastructure in Yemen after rejecting the prior truce proposal. The conflict intensifies but remains primarily within the Saudi-Yemen theater, lifting geopolitical risk premia in oil and aviation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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