Possible scenario
Mediated De-escalation
18% Chance
Regional mediators, likely Oman with UN involvement, move quickly to prevent a spiral after the airport strike. This path becomes plausible because both sides have recent truce contacts despite Riyadh's rejection of the latest Houthi proposal.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.7%
- Energy -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.