Possible scenario
Valuation Reset Continues
38% Chance
Investors treat the $150 billion wipeout as a broader repricing of Chinese foundation-model companies rather than a one-day dislocation. High cash burn, the June AI price war, and uncertainty around overseas monetization keep pressure on AI software valuations.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.1%
- Business Services -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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