Possible scenario
Policy Support Stabilizes
27% Chance
Chinese regulators move to contain the market damage by clarifying AI export licensing and signaling support for national champion model developers. The rebound is plausible because MiniMax and DeepSeek had just received overseas licenses, giving authorities a path to reassure investors without reversing export controls.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.0%
- Telecommunications +0.2%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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