Possible scenario
Saudi Retaliation Widens
25% Chance
Riyadh is likely to consider a sharper military response after repeated attacks on Aden and Saudi-linked facilities. This path raises the risk of a tit-for-tat cycle, although Iran and Saudi Arabia still have incentives to avoid direct confrontation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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