Possible scenario
Contained Airport Campaign
45% Chance
The most likely path is continued Houthi pressure on Aden airport and Saudi-linked logistics without a decisive hit on export infrastructure. Brent stays risk-premium rich because repeated airport strikes signal Saudi and Yemeni facilities remain vulnerable, but markets avoid pricing a full regional supply shock.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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