Possible scenario
Brokered De-escalation
20% Chance
External pressure from Oman, the United Nations, and energy-importing states could push both sides toward a limited pause. This is plausible because neither Saudi Arabia nor the Houthis benefit from an uncontrolled spike in regional military risk, though the captured-territory dispute remains a major obstacle.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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