Possible scenario
Republican Feud Deepens
20% Chance
Paxton's remarks become part of a broader Republican intraparty fight involving Abbott, Paxton, Trump-aligned activists and state legislative allies. The dispute weakens GOP message discipline and gives Hinojosa a chance to campaign as the steadier candidate.
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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