Possible scenario
MiCA Rule Holds
30% Chance
The European Commission and key Parliament members decide that changing MiCA so soon after implementation would weaken regulatory credibility. Tether remains outside the EU license perimeter, and regulated exchanges prepare for tighter USDT restrictions.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.3%
Tickers
- CRCL+4.6%
- -1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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