Possible scenario
Negotiated Parade Deal
45% Chance
The Northern Ireland Office brokers a compromise between the Orange Order, Garvaghy Road residents and the PSNI. The court ruling is honored in form, but route, timing and numbers are limited to reduce the risk of disorder.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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