Possible scenario
Managed Standoff Continues
25% Chance
Negotiations fail to produce a quick settlement, but all sides avoid a direct confrontation. The blockade remains in place temporarily while the PSNI maintains traffic diversions and ministers continue shuttle diplomacy.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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