Possible scenario
Localized Violence Escalates
20% Chance
A breakdown in talks leads to confrontation between protesters, march supporters and police near Garvaghy Road. Violence remains primarily local, but it raises concerns about sectarian flashpoints and draws emergency intervention from Westminster and Stormont leaders.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.3%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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