Possible scenario
Downgrade Risk Persists
40% Chance
MSCI keeps the standalone-market downgrade proposal alive, and foreign investors continue reducing exposure to Indonesian large caps. Jakarta's earlier free-float reforms are judged insufficient, leaving banks, telecoms and consumer names vulnerable to more passive-fund and benchmark-related selling.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.7%
- Telecommunications -0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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