Possible scenario
Rates Stay Restrictive
15% Chance
Markets interpret the gain as evidence that high rates have not fully choked off housing demand. That keeps pressure on long-term yields and limits expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing, offsetting the positive read-through for housing activity.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.3%
Tickers
- OPEN+0.9%
- -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.