Possible scenario
False Dawn
45% Chance
The September gain proves to be a brief rebound from very depressed levels rather than the start of a durable recovery. Mortgage rates near multiyear highs, weak pending sales, and affordability constraints keep transaction volumes close to the 4 million annualized pace.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
Tickers
- -2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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