Possible scenario
Mediation Restores Corridor
38% Chance
Abu Dhabi and Jerusalem de-escalate after security guarantees are negotiated through US and Saudi channels. The UAE permits tightly controlled repatriation flights while keeping regular Flydubai-Israel service suspended pending the cockpit-attack investigation.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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