Possible scenario
Growth Worries Broaden
25% Chance
Investors connect the unemployment rise with earlier weak GDP and IMF forecasts, concluding that domestic demand is losing momentum. The market reaction is risk-off, led by consumer, staffing, industrial, and financial shares.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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