Possible scenario
Data Proves Temporary
20% Chance
The unemployment rise is judged to be statistical noise or a temporary adjustment after the BOJ hike. If wage negotiations and job openings remain firm, markets refocus on normalization and resilient corporate earnings.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.8%
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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