Possible scenario
BOJ Pause Dominates
45% Chance
The unemployment miss reinforces the view that the Bank of Japan will pause after lifting rates to 1.25% in September. Markets interpret the data as evidence that higher borrowing costs are starting to weigh on hiring, reducing near-term odds of another hike.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.5%
- Industrials +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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