Possible scenario
Fed Pressure Dominates
22% Chance
The Korean selloff stays tightly linked to global rates after Fed officials recently projected more 2026 hikes. Near-term direction depends on whether U.S. yields and the dollar extend their move or reverse enough to support growth and semiconductor shares.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Bitcoin Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.