Possible scenario
Republican Late Recovery
20% Chance
The CBS projection proves too favorable to Democrats as GOP turnout improves and some swing districts revert to Republican candidates. This would be a modest surprise relative to the polling trend and would revive expectations for Trump’s legislative leverage.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.8%
- Energy +0.6%
- Utilities -0.4%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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