Possible scenario
Narrow Democratic Majority
50% Chance
The CBS projection proves broadly accurate and Democrats win a small but workable House majority. This is the most likely outcome because CBS, Cook, VoteHub, the generic ballot, and Trump’s weak approval all point in the same direction.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.3%
- Finance +0.2%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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