Possible scenario
Larger Democratic Wave
20% Chance
The CBS projection understates Democratic momentum and late undecided voters break sharply against Republicans. A larger Democratic majority would strengthen oversight of Trump and raise the odds of tighter fiscal negotiations.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Copper Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.5%
- Healthcare
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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