Possible scenario
Limited Maritime Flare-Up
30% Chance
The carrier relief occurs during a period of renewed Houthi pressure on Red Sea shipping or U.S.-flagged assets. Washington responds with defensive operations and limited strikes, but the conflict remains geographically contained to Yemen, the Red Sea, and nearby waters.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.0%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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