Possible scenario
Sustained Deep Strikes
45% Chance
Ukraine continues using long-range drones to hit Russian defense-industrial targets 800-1,200 km from the front. Moscow absorbs the damage while dispersing production and tightening air defenses, making this a continuation of the current escalation rather than a sudden regime shift.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
- Energy +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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