Possible scenario
Contained Russian Retaliation
30% Chance
Russia responds with heavier strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure and command sites but avoids direct action against NATO territory. This is a plausible near-term response because Moscow has repeatedly answered long-range Ukrainian attacks with missile and drone salvos rather than formal escalation against the alliance.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.7%
- Energy +0.4%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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