Probe Contains Crisis

The most likely path is that Israel, the UAE and Saudi Arabia treat the Flydubai incident as a contained aviation-security event rather than a regional confrontation. The unusual Trump-Netanyahu account of a plumber intervening becomes part of a broader inquiry into how the cockpit threat developed and why Saudi authorities arrested the pilot.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.