Possible scenario
Diplomatic Friction Deepens
18% Chance
Riyadh pushes back against Netanyahu's version of events and resists being pulled into Trump-led Abraham Accords messaging. The incident becomes politically sensitive because it links a Saudi arrest, an Israeli landing and Emirati airline operations in one security crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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