Possible scenario
Managed Friction Persists
27% Chance
Iran keeps asserting authority over the strait through inspections, radio challenges, and selective warnings, but avoids broad disruption. Markets price a modest security premium because the flow data are strong, yet the political control risk remains unresolved.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.